Start
date or starting event: Project start date
Lead
contractor number: 1 - University of Newcastle upon Tyne
Person-months
per partner: 1-24; 2-2; 3-0; 4-2; 5-3; 6-0
Objectives
and input to workpackage
-
Selection
of 1 application basin (<500km2) in focus area
A and 1 in B/C and assembly of SHETRAN database.
-
Application
of SHETRAN to model debris flow spatial and temporal occurrence
and impact on basin sediment yield for land use and climate
scenarios.
-
Development
of guidelines for basin management to minimize impacts.
Description
of work
-
Selection
of test river basins according to availability of recorded debris
flow events, associated meteorological and basin response data
and basin thematic data (topography, soils, vegetation).
-
Assembly
of data, including field measurements, and creation of SHETRAN
data files. Enhancement of SHETRAN with relationships from WP1.
Model validation for past conditions.
-
Development
of future land use scenarios (with advice from end-users) and
climate scenarios (using proven in-house experience in statistical
downscaling from GCM data and rainfall return period data from
WP1).
-
Application
of SHETRAN to scenario conditions for the test basins, giving
debris flow spatial and temporal occurrence at event scale and
basin sediment yield at annual scale. Assess dependency of debris
flow occurrence and sediment yield on land use, future climate
and rainfall return period.
-
Production
of illustrative matrices showing debris flow occurrence as a
function of land use (e.g. forest cover, abandoned land, etc)
and rainfall event (extreme, moderate, etc) and the annual sediment
yield as a function of land use and climate (for 2000, 2040,
2090). Indicate extent to which sediment yield impact is attenuated
by upstream basin area.
Deliverables
D8)
Spatially distributed simulations of hydrological and debris flow
response for current and possible future conditions, as input to
WP2.
D9)
Illustrative guidelines for basin land management to mitigate debris
flow occurrence and impact, as input to WP5.
Milestones
and expected result
Month
18: Preliminary simulation data for WP2.
Month
24: Final simulation data for WP2.
Month
30: Illustrative guidelines for WP5.
Result:
Demonstration
of debris flow impact assessment for current and scenario conditions
for 2 basins up to 500km2 and new guidelines on basin
management for end-users.
